和田绿洲地下水埋深的自然影响因素分析

Physical influencing factors of groundwater depth in Hotan Oasis

采用灰色关联分析方法研究自然因素对和田绿洲地下水埋深的影响,并建立多元线性回归模型进行检验。结果表明,气温、蒸发是地下水埋深的两个最重要的影响因子,埋深随蒸发增加、气温升高而增大。出山口径流(主要为冰雪融水)对地下水埋深的影响仅次于气温和蒸发,埋深随径流增大而逐渐减小,约有1～2个月的滞时。风速、水温和湿度对地下水埋深的影响相对较小,降水与地下水埋深的关系不太明显。影响因子与埋深的多元线性回归模型的拟合精度较高,且通过了置信水平α=0.01的显著性检验。

The influences of natural factors on groundwater depth in Hotan Oasis were analyzed by grey relational analysis and multiple linear regression models set up to test the precision of the analysis. The results show that temperature and evaporation are the most important influencing factors of groundwater depth. Groundwater depth sinks deeper with increasing temperature and evaporation. Runoff recharges groundwater and is the second important factor. Groundwater depth gets shallower with increasing runoff and groundwater response lags by one to two months. The influence of wind speed, water temperature or humidity on groundwater depth is relatively low. There is no significant correlation between precipitation and groundwater depth. The groundwater depth regression models have high precision with confidence levels above α= 0.01.