中国通货膨胀的历史趋势与结构因素

Historical Trend and Structural Factor of China’s Inflation

在经历了1980年代中后期、1990年代初中期与1990年代后期的三阶段演化过程后,中国通货膨胀机制已经完成从高核心通货膨胀率向低核心通货膨胀率的结构转变。虽然2007年以来中国粮食及其他农产品价格上涨具有长期的结构性通货膨胀性质,但是中国通货膨胀已经并且继续呈现低核心通货膨胀率的历史趋势。中国货币政策应该采取以CPI指数核心通货膨胀率度量的价格稳定目标,通过积极需求管理促进中国经济持续快速增长。

Through three stages in the middle and late 1980s, the early and middle 1990s and the late 1990s, China＇s inflation has finished its structural change from high-core inflation rate to low-core one. Although the increase in price of grain and agriculture products made China have a touch of a long-term structural inflation, China kept and will keep the low-core inflation rate. The goal of China＇s monetary policy should be to stabilize price measured by CPI core rate of inflation, to promote the rapid and sustainable growth of China＇s economy by active demand management.