中国食糖供求分析与预测

Analysis and Prediction on China's Sugar Supply and Demand

利用预测模型从原料生产的角度,分析了我国食糖供给的变化趋势;然后从居民用糖和工业用糖两个方面,研究了食糖需求的变化;最后从贸易的角度,探讨了我国满足国内食糖供需缺口的可能途径。研究发现:食糖的供给潜力主要在于甘蔗糖方面;需求方面,工业用糖量增长较快,是推动食糖需求增长的主要动力。由于食糖需求增长的速度快于供给的增长,我国食糖的供求缺口有不断增加趋势。为避免食糖体系失衡风险,增加国内食糖供给才是解决我国食糖供求矛盾的最佳途径。

From the aspect of material production of sugar crops, the tendency of sugar supply in China was analyzed. Then the tendency of demand from civilian consumption and industry use was studied. In the end, from the aspect of trade, the possible approach was realized to fill the gap between supply and demand. The study shows that the supply potential lies in sugarcane. From the aspect of demand, the use of industry sugar increases much. It is the main power to push the demand. Because sugar demand increases quicker than the supply, the gap between them trends to be wider. The best way to solve the problem is to increase supply so that the risk of sugar industry system will become lower.