江苏省粮食生产时空格局演变及影响因素

Influence Factors and Temperal-spatial Structure of Grain Production in Jiangsu Province

江苏省是我国主要的"粮仓"之一,其粮食生产对我国粮食安全乃至社会稳定都具有重大意义。本文以县域为研究单元,运用数理统计和GIS空间分析结合的方法,揭示建国以来江苏省粮食生产时空格局分异特征。结果表明:江苏县市间粮食产量的差异呈拉大态势,粮食总产低于全省平均水平的县域占多数,且呈集中趋势愈加明显;从区域尺度看,苏南地区在江苏省粮食生产中的地位在不断下降,粮食生产重心由苏南逐步向苏北转移,尤其是里下河平原成为江苏粮食生产的集中地区。定量分析表明,粮食播种面积、农业机械总动力、化肥施用量、有效灌溉面积等因素是影响江苏省粮食生产区域格局变化的主要因素。

Jiangsu province is one of main granary in China. The grain production of Jiangsu province is of great significance to grain security, even social stability of China. The temporal-spatial character of grain production in Jiangsu province is revealed by applying mathematical statistics and GIS with country as study unit since 1949. The results are as follows： Fistly, county （city） regional difference of the grain yield in Jiangsu province has showed a tendency to expand gradually, but the numbers of county （city） that the ultimate output is lower than the entire province average level occupy mostly, at the same time the central tendency is even more obvious since 1952. Secondly, based on regional scale, South Jiangsu area is attenuating in entire province grain production status, and the high value district appears the trendency from South Jiangsu area to North Jiangsu area. Specially, Lixia River plain is gradually becoming cluster area of grain production in Jiangsu. Finally, quantitative methods is applied to analyze the main factors influencing changes of regional pattern of grain production in Jiangsu province, including that grain crop area, the total powers of agriculture machine, chemical fertilizer application and effective irrigation area.