塔里木河流域水量调度优化模型研究

Research on Optimal Model of Tarim River Water Regulation System

针对塔里木河流域水量调度问题,建立以经济和生态效益最大化为目标,满足种植业水量优化配置和生态水有效配置的优化调度模型。模型运用遗传算法对种植业水量进行优化配置,以保证农业生产效益的最大化;并以生态需水水量和生态需水警戒级别为基础,将有限的水量按照轮灌法分配各个生态单元的生态用水;同时运用自适应理论,根据最新的水文信息和引水信息逐时段地调整各个用水单元的水量分配过程,以保证优化模型分配的水量能够进行有效的调度。以塔里木河流域2005调度年为例,对模型进行了初步验证,结果表明,优化调度模型可以有效进行水量优化配置和实时控制,为流域生态恢复和经济发展提供了良好的决策参考。

Water allocation and regulation are an essential approach for solving the problem of water shortage. A water optimization allocation model is established in this paper. This model aims to get a maximum economic and ecologic benefit based on the special situation in Tarim River. This model would allocate water for planting industry with optimization modeling method, namely genetic algorithm, and it aims to guarantee an optimized benefit of agricultural production. Moreover, the model will allocate ecological water process considering the Tarim River as a whole. With the foundation ecological water requirement and the ecological warning grade, the model will allocate the ecological water to each ecological district with the method of alternate water supply for each ecological district in different years. Regulate water supply process is applied on each user stage by stage to make sure that water allocation scheme can be performed in spite of the characteristic of stochastic inflow. The water allocation scheme will be adjusted by the optimized model based on the latest hydrological data and diversion data. Finally, a case study of Tarim River in 2005 is presented to validate the model. The result indicates that, the optimal regulation model can allocate water efficiently and in a real time mode. So, this model can provide referential value for ecological restoration and economical development in Tarim River basin.