矿山地质环境变异的模糊综合评价

Fuzzy synthetic evaluation on the geologica1 environment-catastrophe of the mine

利用现场调查收集灾害点和区域地质环境数据,将模糊综合评判应用到区域地质灾害危险性评价中,在模糊综合评判时,由于评价因素较多,因此采用二级模糊综合评判模型.评价集采用三级评价标准,即把地质灾害危险性划分为危险性小、危险性中等和危险性大三类.确定了三个参评要素:地质环境条件、地质动力和历史状况,十一个评价因子,采用半梯形分布隶属函数曲线确定其隶属度.选用在传统的层次分析方法上有所改进的模糊层次分析法(FAHP)作为评价因素权重的确定方法,确定了各评价要素、因子的权重值.然后进行模糊变换与综合评判,根据最大隶属度原则,评判计算单元所属危险性级别.为定量评估研究区地质灾害危险性,把整个太原市西山矿区进行单元划分,将全区划分为23个有效单元.文中以第15单元为例具体说明了模糊综合评判方法.在整个研究区运用该方法,计算出每个单元所属地质灾害危险性类别,从而判断了各单元所属的危险性等级.

Taiyuan City of Shanxi Province, is one of the energy and industry bases of China. Thousands of anthropological activities, especially the high-speed development of economy and excessive increase of population during these decades, aggravate the requirement of the nature. Irrational engineering of humankind is aggravating the danger of geological hazards day by day. Defending and reducing disasters has become a very pressing, inevitable and realistic social problem. The world attaches much importance to danger assessment of geological hazard, which is basic work to put the scientific management of geological environment into practice. The danger assessment of geological hazard is not only the foundation of deep understanding of endangered status, it also provides scientific gist to frame prevention and cure measures in practice, to optimize and manage projects and so on. Based on the things upwards, the article uses the disaster and territorial geological environment data investigated on the spot, and apply the method of fuzzy synthesize assessment to the danger assessment of regional geological hazards, then discusses the rationality. The aim is to use the method of fuzzy synthesize assessment to analyze the risk of geological disaster to satisfy the requirement of facility, practicality and rationality put forward by practice. For too many factors, fuzzy synthesize assessment method selects the two-level model. In order to evaluate quantitatively the risk of geological disaster, the whole area of Xishan mining area in Taiyuan city is divided into 23 units. The evaluation set has three-stage standard, that is to say the dangerous degree of the disaster is divided three stages. It selects three primary factors, including geological environmental condition, geological power and historical condition. They include eleven secondary factors, which are litho logic characters, structure density, earthquake intensity, degree of slope, relative height difference, ore-bed exploited state, rainfall intensity, density of cover, mine condition, hazard density and hazard scale. Membership function adopts the echelon form one. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） is used to determine the weight of the above factors. After fuzzy mapping and comprehensive evaluating, the risk degree of the unit is determined, according to the principle of the maximum membership grade. The article takes the 15th unit for example. Then all the risk degree of the unit is determined.