摘要
目的：通过对乌鲁木齐市居民２０００年恶性肿瘤死亡率的预测，为恶性肿瘤的预防和控制策略与措施的研究提供科学依据。方法：系统收集乌鲁木齐市居民恶性肿瘤死亡资料，用灰色系统理论，对本市２０００年恶性肿瘤死亡率进行短期预测。结果：到２０００年，乌鲁木齐市居民恶性肿瘤死亡率由１９９３年的５９．０／１０万上升为９１．３／１０万。其中男性肿瘤死亡率由１９９３年的７６．３／１０万上升为１２４．２／１０万，女性肿瘤死亡率由４１．０／１０万上升为５８．０／１０万。肺癌死亡率由１９９３年的１４．３／１０万到２０００年时上升为２７．０／１０万，是上升速度最快而且幅度最大的肿瘤。结论：预测结果说明乌鲁木齐市居民恶性肿瘤死亡率将继续上升；肺癌。
Objective: To provide scientific basis for cancer prevention and controlling attempts of the cancer mortality in year of 2000 in Urumqi was forecasted. Methods: Gathered the data of cancer mortality in Urumqi systematically, and analysed with Gery Sevies Forecasting Model. Results: The cancer mortality of population in Urumqi will increase from 59.0 per 100000 in 1993 to 91.3 per 100000 in 2000. The cancer mortality in men and women will increase from 76.3 per 100000 and 41.0 per 100000 in 1993 to 124.2 per 100000 and 58.0 per 100000 in 2000 respectively. In mortality of different cancer, the lung cancer mortality will increase significantly. Conclusions: The result of forecast suggests that the cancer mortality in Urumqi will increase continuously, especially lung cancer.
