高速公路交通事故的优化组合预测模型

Optimized combination forecasting model of expressway traffic accidents

采用灰色GM(1,1)模型和三次指数平滑模型进行优化组合,建立了基于IOWGA(诱导有序几何加权平均)算子交通事故的预测模型,并对组合预测模型进行了检验。检验结果表明,组合预测模型是有效的,可靠的,具有较高的预测精度。

Utilizing gray GM（1,1） model and cubic exponential smoothing model optimized combination forecasting model of traffic accidents is established based upon IOWGA operator. Further checking is also made on this combination forecasting model. Results show combination forecasting model is effective, reliable and practicable with high forecasting accuracy.