大型场馆人员疏散仿真预测的研究

Study of crowd evacuation simulating and forecasting in large-scale venues

针对上海世界博览会的客流引导系统中的人员疏散问题提出了基于智能体思想的疏散仿真预测模型。基于智能体的仿真为研究疏散仿真预测提供了一种微观仿真的方法,该方法采用折线步行路径算法实现人员对障碍物的有效规避,考虑人的多种属性,进行了在突发事件下有疏导提示和无疏导提示的人员疏散模拟,以及在疏散过程中人与人之间相互作用可能造成的影响。通过构建某地铁车站的人员疏散模型,对仿真预测得到的结果进行了分析研究,验证了该方法的可行性,利用该结果可提高预案制定的针对性和准确性。同时该方法也可为突发公共事件应急平台提供智能决策支持。

The evacuative simulating and forecasting model based on agent is proposed especially for the crowd evacuation of crowd piloting system in 2010 Shanghai EXPO. The simulating based on agent supply a microcosmic method for the evacuative simulating and forecasting study. It adopts flectional walking arithmetic and makes people avoid remora, puts several kinds of persons＇ properties into consideration, simulates the crowd evacuation with leading index and without leading index under the emergent circumstances and the panic influences among the people during the evacuation. By the crowd evacuation model of some sub-way station, the outcome of the simulation is explicitly analyzed and studied. This method can help improve the pertinence and veracity of emergent plan. And it also can support the intelligent decision-making for the emergency platform of public emergent affairs.