基于GIS的有害生物分布预测系统研究开发

Research on prediction system of pest distribution based on GIS

为了满足现代农业发展的需要,建立有效预防和控制外来有害生物入侵的技术平台,研究开发出一种基于地理信息系统(GIS)的有害生物分布预测系统。系统将ADO数据库访问技术和GIS空间管理技术相结合,实现了空间数据的自动采样和处理,并利用两种生态位模型算法GARP和MaxEnt分析预测出有害生物在我国潜在的地理分布区,最后对模型预测结果进行ROC曲线评价。实验结果表明,系统的模型评价指标值均在0.85以上,对于有害生物的适生性分析具有较好的预测能力。

In order to filfull the request of developing modem agriculture, and establish a technology platform for preventing and controlling alien pest, a prediction system of pest distribution is developed. It is based on GIS, combines ADO database access technology with GIS space management technology, and realizes antomatic sampling and processing ofspace data. The system predicts the potential distribution of pest in China with GARP and MaxEnt niche model, and uses ROC curve to evaluate the models. The results show that all the evaluate indexs of models are above 0.85, so the system has a better prediction ability on analysis of the pest suitability.