中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a需求和排放预测

Forecasting of Consumption and Emission of HFC-134a Used in Automobile Air Conditioner Sector in China

近年来HFC-134a作为中国汽车空调行业CFC-12制冷剂最主要的替代品,其消费量增长迅速,是中国消费量最大的HFCs(氢氟烃类物质)。以2005年为基线,通过制冷剂替代、技术进步、熟练操作和政策控制等情景假设,预测了中国汽车空调行业HFC-134a的需求量及排放量。结果表明:到2010和2015年,汽车空调HFC-134a的消费量将分别接近2.0万和3.5万t,排放量将分别接近1.6万和3.0万t,约折合排放21.0和39.0MtCO2当量。上述排放相对基线情景(即维持当前政策措施和不开展回收活动),2010年和2015年减排温室气体分别为6.7和13.0MtCO2当量。

HFC-134a is the most important alternatives for CFC-12 used in automobile air-conditioning sector in China, and the consumption has been increasing rapidly in recent years; the consumption of HFC-134a is the largest one of HFCs consumptions. Choosing 2005 as the base line year, future consumption and emission amounts of HFC- 134a are estimated through scenario analysis： use of non-HFC-134a blends, technology promotion, good practice in servicing, and government policies. The analysis shows that HFC-134a consumption and emission will continue increasing in the next 10 years; the estimated HFC-134a consumption will approach to 20 kt and 35 kt in 2010 and 2015, and the estimated emission will approach to 16 kt and 30 kt, amounting to 21.0 MtCO2-eq and 39.0 MtCO2-eq emissions, respectively. Compared with the BAU scenario （under the current policy and no recovery management）, the emission reductions in 2010 and 2015 will be 6.7 MtCO2-eq and 13.0 MtCO2-eq,respectively.