公路交通事故黑点成因的对应分析法

Correspondence Analysis Method for the Causes of Highway Black Spots

为了便捷获取公路事故黑点的形成原因,应用对应分析构建立事故黑点成因分析模型。该模型设立事故样本和事故影响因素之间的列联表,将列联表中影响变量的状态呈现于二维对应分析散点图中,以直观简洁的形式描述事故样本与影响因素之间的对应关系。进而设定相关系数判定对应分析模型的收敛性,应用点子排除法剔除特殊影响变量,增强了分析结果的鲁棒性。通过G205事故黑点路段(K954+50-K954+900)的实例分析表明,运用对应分析法所建立的模型与算法可以获得公路事故黑点形成的主要和次要因素,准确确定直接原因与根本原因的对应关系。

In order to obtain the causes of highway black spots conveniently, correspondence analysis method is used to establish the cause analysis model of accident blacl/ spots. The contingency table between accident samples and it influencing factors is modeled. The status of influencing factors is presented in the two-dimensional scatter diagram of correspondence analysis, and the corresponding relations between accident samples and influencing factors are described in straightforward forms. On the basis of it, correlation coefficient is set to judge the convergence of the model. The exclusive method is used to rejects special influencing variables and enhances the robustness of analysis results. The analysis of an example in the black-spot section （from K954 ＋ 50 to K954 ＋ 900） of G205 shows that the model and algorithm produced by the correspondence analysis method could obtain the main and secondary factors of forming the black spots. Also, the corresponding relation between direct and fundamental causes is accurately obtained.