基于时间序列的农业非点源污染产出预测研究

Forecast of agricultural non-point source pollution output based on time series model

选取三江平原蛤蟆通河流域作为研究区,利用SWAT模型农业非点源污染模拟结果,建立了农业非点源污染的季节性ARIMA模型,对未来3年农业非点源污染进行了预测,为非点源污染防治提供一定的理论依据。

This paper took Sanjiang Plain Hamatong River Basin as a study area, according to the simulation results of agricultural non-point pollution calculated by SWAT model, established a seasonal ARIMA model of agricultural non-point source pollution, applied the model to forecast the agricultural non-point pollution for the next 3 years, and provided a method for prevention and controlling the non-point source pollution.