技术进步对制造业就业弹性调节效应的实证分析

An Empirical Study of the Technology Progress Moderating Effect on Employment Elasticity of Manufacturing in China

引入技术进步作为调节变量,研究其对劳动力价格、城市化水平和经济发展水平与制造业就业弹性关系的调节效应。运用1986年-2006年的时间序列数据,采用层级回归方法进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:劳动力价格与制造业的就业弹性呈显著的正相关关系,说明劳动力市场并未能通过价格有效发挥其对劳动力资源的配置作用;城市化水平的提高促使一部分原制造业中的就业人员向服务业转移;经济发展水平的提高通过影响产品需求结构,阻碍了制造业就业弹性的增加;而技术进步对制造业就业弹性并没有表现出显著的影响作用。同时技术进步对劳动力价格、城市化水平与制造业就业弹性之间关系的调节效应不显著,对经济发展水平与制造业就业弹性之间关系的调节效应显著。进一步完善劳动力市场的价格调节机制、扶持和促进第三产业的发展是提高就业弹性和促进就业的关键。

This paper imports technology progress as a moderating variable, and explores the direct influence and moderating effect made by technology progress to labor force price,urbanization level and economic development influence on the employment elasticity of manufacturing. Taking time series over the period 1986—2006 as a sample,in this paper,the relationships of labor force price,urbanization level,economic development and technology progress with the employment elasticity of manufacturing are empirically studied with hierarchical regression method. It is concluded that labor force price has significant positive relation with the employment elasticity of manufacturing,which indicates that labor force market doesn't have an effective function in the distribution of manpower; the improvement of urbanization level makes some employers of manufacturing migrate to service industry; the economic development has significant negative relation with employment elasticity; technology progress does not affect employment elasticity significantly. Technology progress affects employment elasticity mainly by the moderating effect to promote economic development. To improve the price mechanism of labor market and to support and promote the development of tertiary industry can guarantee the increase of employment elasticity.