石油投资、经济增长与未来国际油价走势

Oil investment, economic growth and the trend in oil prices

由于技术进步,石油勘探开发周期有所缩短,但是依然不少于5年。2005-2008年上半年的油价暴涨拉动石油投资大增,但是投资效果至少要到2008年以后才能显现。当前,新增石油发现的"峰值"已经过去,产量"峰值"还需要等待,但也应该为期不远。因此,理性实施石油投资显得尤为重要。世界财富流向过度集中和分配不均的长期积累,最终将破坏甚至摧毁世界经济,周期性经济衰退在一定程度上也是调和这种不稳定因素的必然结果。当前还没有看到国际油价"见底"的信号。预计2009-2010年是国际原油价格触"底"的确认时期。金融危机导致石油消费骤降可能是一个信号,节能降耗技术、石油替代技术可能主导未来石油消费的规模和石油价格的走势。在2020年以前,石油勘探开发投资依然处在非常好的发展阶段。预计在2020年前后,世界能源领域将发生变革性的进展。

Technological progress has shortened the investment horizon for oil exploration and production, but to no less than five years. Continuous and sharp surge in oil prices from 2005 until the first half of 2008 attracted tremendous investment in oil exploration and production, but the investment wasn’t expected to yield any profit until 2008. Despite no discovery of new vast oil reserves, under present circumstances we can expect production capacity to peak in coming years. That is to say, it is crucial that investment continue to be made in oil facilities, but on a rational basis. As the longstanding situation of extreme concentration of wealth and dramatically unbalanced distribution of benefit remains unchanged, the world economy will suffer and eventually collapse. Periodic recession can be viewed as the inevitable outcome of adjusting the volatile situation. At present, no visible sign has emerged to indicate that international oil prices are at their lowest point and such signs of further oil price decline as a sharp decline in oil consumption amid financial meltdown will probably appear either in 2009 or 2010. Technology involving energy conservation, consumption reduction and alternative resources will eventually have an enormous impact on future oil consumption and price. It’s widely acknowledged that investment in petroleum exploration and production still boasts a bright future until 2020, while a revolutionaryadvancement in the global energy industry is expected after that.