实物期权法在石油投资项目经济评价中的适用性分析及应用

Applicability Analysis and Application of Real Option Method in Economic Evaluation of Petroleum Investment Projects

文章在分析传统经济评价方法不足的基础上,在石油投资项目经济评价中引入实物期权方法,介绍了其评价思想、评价准则以及定价模型,重点分析了石油投资项目的期权特点,论述了实物期权在石油投资项目中的适用范围与应用对象,并指出在较高不确定性条件下的石油投资项目的经济评价中,实物期权法是一种比较理想的投资分析方法。

The real option method is introduced to economic evaluation of petroleum investment projects based on the analysis on insufficiency of the traditional economic evaluation methodology. The evaluation thought and criterion and pricing model of the real option method are illustrated and the emphasis is put on the option characteristic of petroleum investment project. The applicable scopes and objectives of the method for petroleum investment projects are discussed. It is pointed out that the real option method is a better invest- ment analysis method among those economic evaluation methods under considerable uncertainty conditions.