不确定性、融资约束与企业投资新特点——基于上市公司的实证研究

Uncertainty, Financing Constraints and New Features of Corporate Investment: An Empirical Study of Listed Companies

利用我国证券市场制造业2001-2006年的数据,在考虑现有上市公司特点和证券市场及其他经济环境特点的基础上,对不确定性和融资约束与中国企业投资关系进行检验,结果显示:加速模型对企业投资行为有较强的解释作用;内部现金流和不确定性对企业投资有明显影响,且两种因素对投资的影响具有相互加强的作用;规模和国有股权比例高未必有利于企业融资;国有股比例越高,企业规模越大,投资对不确定性敏感性越大。因此,应该营造公平的融资环境和稳定的经济环境,尤其是短期市场的稳定性;应注意现阶段大型企业和国有股份程度高的企业的反直觉特点。

By making use of the data of manufacturing industry in Chinese stock markets from 2001 to 2006 and taking into account the characteristics of the existing listed corporations and stock markets as well as other economic conditions, this paper gives a study on the relation between uncertainty and financing constraints and the investment of Chinese enterprises. The results show that the model of acceleration can well interpret the investment behavior of the enterprises; the inner cash flow and uncertainty have an obvious effect on the corporate investment, and the effects of the two factors on investment have a function of strengthening each other; neither larger scale nor higher state ownership may benefit the financing of the enterprises; the higher proportion of state-owned stocks and the larger scale of the business will cause a greater sensitivity to uncertainty for investment. Therefore, an equitable financing condition and stable economic environment should be created, especially the stability of the short term market; at present stage, attention should he paid to the counter-intuition characteristics of large-scale corporations and enterprises with higher proportion of state owned stocks.