气象要素的时间分布对五代桑螟数量影响分析

Impact of time distribution of meteorological elements on population of the 5th generation of Diaphania pyloalis

应用积分回归方法,分析气象要素对5代桑螟Diaphania pyloalis Walker数量影响的结果显示,各气象要素的时间分布对5代桑螟数值效应的变化较大,有的时段为正效应,有的时段为负效应;影响效应最大为相对湿度,日平均温度次之,降水和日照项对湿度和温度起着修饰作用。8月上旬高温多湿、8月中旬高温干燥对5代桑螟发生量有明显促进作用;9月上旬多湿和适度低温、9月中旬干燥和适度高温有利于5代桑螟数量增加。多湿环境有利于桑螟卵的生存和孵化,干燥环境有利于桑螟幼虫和蛹的生存。用11年历史值进行验证,吻合效果达到极显著。通过2007年的预测值与大田实际调查值对比,误差在13.6%,证明模拟的数学模型能准确地反映5代桑螟自然种群数量动态。

The effect of meteorological elements on amount of 5th generation of Diaphania pyloalis Walker was analyzed with integral regression method. The results showed that there was great variation in the effect of time distribution of meteorological elements. The element with greatest impact was relative humidity, daily average temperature secondly, and precipitation and sunshine played decorating roles for humidity and temperature. High temperature and humid weather in early August, and high temperature and dry weather in mid-August may promote the increasing of 5th generation of D. pyloalises. Humid weather and moderate low temperature in early September and dry weather and moderate high temperature in mid-September were beneficial for the increasing of 5th generation of D. pyloalises. Humid environment was advantageous to egg survival and hatching, and dry environment is advantageous to the survival of larvae and pupae. Tested with 11-year record, it fitted significantly. The deviation between estimated values and investigation in the field in 2007 was 13.6% , which proved that the simulation with mathematical model can accurately reflect natural population dynamics of 5th generation of D. pyloalises.