摘要
A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among sys-tem elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Fur-thermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes pre-sented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustain-able utilization strategy of water resources.
A system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting was developed based on the analysis of urban water resources system, which was characterized by multi-feedback and nonlinear interactions among system elements. As an example, Tianjin water resources system dynamic model was set up to forecast water resources demand of the planning years. The practical verification showed that the relative error was lower than 10%. Furthermore, through the comparison and analysis of the simulation results under different development modes presented in this paper, the forecasting results of the water resources demand of Tianjin was achieved based on sustainable utilization strategy of water resources.
基金
Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.50578108)
Doctoral Programs Foundation of Ministry of Education of China (No.20050056016)
National Key Program for Basic Research ( "973" Program, No.2007CB407306-1)
Science and Technology Development Foundation of Tianjin (No.033113811 and No.05YFSYSF032)
Educational Commission of Hebei Province (No.2008324)
Tianjin Social Key Foundation (No.tjyy08-01-078).
