当前我国经济周期阶段与对策分析

An Analysis of Business Cycle Phase of China and Policies

从潜在经济增长率、总需求、价格指数等三个方面进行综合考察,可以发现,当前我国经济正处于由波峰向下转折的下滑过程中,但经济增长的下滑和放缓并不意味着当前我国经济己滑入衰退阶段,这只是繁荣阶段的一种调整,只是扩张或繁荣的程度减弱而已,我国经济发展的基本态势并未发生改变。为保持经济持续繁荣,遏制经济下滑趋势,除要借助积极的财政政策与适度宽松的货币政策等政策手段外,更要立足于两个重要方面,即进一步促进消费增长和努力扩大就业。

With the help of analysis on economic growth rate and aggregate demand, and analysis on macro economic variables, such as price index, the author explores China＇s business cycle phase. The author puts forward that the decrease in economic growth does not mean that we have entered into the phase of economic declining; it is only an adjustment in the phase of prosperity. And the trend of economic development has not been change yet. Except for the proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary policy, we can also take such countermeasures as promoting growth in consumption and stimulating employment.