中国贸易增长的能源环境代价

Impact of Trade on China's Energy Consumptionand SO_2 Emission:1987～2006

本文构建了1987～2006年的可比价格投入产出表,并以此为基础测算了贸易对中国能源消耗和SO2排放的影响。结果表明,此期间出口含能量和出口含硫量增长迅速,且增速快于相应的进口含污量增速,同时能源和SO2的贸易条件也明显恶化。而出口含能量和出口含硫量之所以快速上升,这主要是出口规模迅速增长带来的规模效应。不过技术变动有效地抑制了上述规模效应。此外,结构效应很小,这意味着中国的出口结构变化对能耗和SO2排放的影响不大。

Using input-output methodology, this paper finds that China＇s energy and SO2 embodied in export has increased rapidly- since 1987. Since the energy and pollution embodied in export grew faster than their correspondences embodied in import, the net energy and SO2 embodied in trade expanded quickly. At the same time, their pollution trade term has deteriorated steadily. Structural decomposition shows the rapid change of the energy and SO2 embodied in export was mainly due to the export scale. On the other hand, the technical effect had significantly limited their enlargement. While the structural effect was very little, which means the structure of export had taken little effect on energy consumption and SO2 emission.