我国相机抉择财政政策效应非对称性的实证研究

Test on Asymmetry of Discretional Fiscal Policy Effects in China

本文利用脉冲响应函数检验相机抉择财政政策产出效应、通货膨胀效应的非对称性。检验结果表明:无论是产出效应还是通货膨胀效应,我国财政政策均存在明显的非对称性:扩张性财政政策的产出效应明显大于紧缩性财政政策的产出效应,并且其对产出的影响也更为持久,而在通货膨胀或价格效应方面也是如此,即扩张性财政政策对价格的影响远比紧缩性财政政策大且深远。对财政政策通货膨胀效应的非对称性检验结果可从价格和工资黏性的角度进行解释,而对于财政政策产出效应的非对称性检验结果可从公众预期、政府政策实践和消费者信用市场不发达等方面寻找原因。

In this Paper, asymmetry of discretional fiscal policy effects on eco- nomic growth and inflation in China is tested by impulse-response function. The resuits show that effects of discretional fiscal policy on economic growth and inflation are asymmetric, that is, effects of expansionary fiscal policy on economic growth and inflation are much stronger than those of contractionary fiscal policy. The reasons may lie in stickiness of price and wage, public expectation, government policy practice and consumer credit market.