开放经济条件下我国潜在产出水平的估算与解析——基于新凯恩斯主义的理论框架

Estimating and Interpreting the Potential Output of Mainland under Openness Condition

目前有关估算我国潜在产出的研究,大多是在封闭条件下进行的,在我国对外贸易依存度和对外开放程度逐渐增强的背景下,忽略国际市场因素对我国实体经济的影响可能会导致对潜在产出水平的估计出现较大偏差。为此,本文引入开放条件下"产出-通胀"菲利普斯曲线作为我国总供给函数,通过建立状态空间模型并运用多变量卡尔曼滤波法对我国潜在产出水平进行估算,然后将估算结果与趋势分解法和封闭条件下的模型估算结果进行比较。

There have been many economists paying attention to explore China＇s potential output. However, most of them constructed models in closed economy, ignoring the influence disturbed by some factors from international market, such as the real effective exchange rate and so on. This essay considers the Phillips Curve under openness condition instead of closed economyas the aggregate supply function of China, then measures China＇s potential output by constructing the state-space model and the estimating method of multivariate Kalrman-filter.