货币错配对我国货币政策影响的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Monetary Policy Effect Aroused by Currency Mismatch

货币错配是发展中国家普遍存在的现象,本文在对国内外相关文献进行梳理后,通过实证检验,发现货币错配在我国对M1产生的影响较为直接和迅速,对M2产生的影响较为持久,影响的程度也更大。冲击响应的正效应在经历了衰减和振荡后仍然保持在较高的位置,这说明货币错配对我国货币供应量的影响是长期的,协整检验结果揭示我国货币错配程度与货币供给量之间呈现较强的正相关性,这不仅削弱了央行的独立性,而且还可能导致以货币供应量为中介目标的货币政策的弱化甚至失灵,本文对加强审慎性监管提出了具体的建议。

Currency mismatch is ubiquitous in emerging markets. Serious currency mismatch can affect the stability of economy and the effect of the economic policy. And, it will lead to the failure of monetary tools. Having reviewed the relative papers, we find the effect of currency mismatch on M1 is direct and quick and the effect on M2 is constant and deep through our empirical tests. The effect of im- pulse-response remains high after the attenuation and vibration. It tells us the impact of currency mismatch is long-term. Cointegration test shows that relationship between currency and currency supply is positively correlaed. Not only does the currency mismatch weaken the independence of central bank, but also interferes with the monetary policies which aim at the currency supply amount. Finally, we pro- vide specific suggestions on how to monitor the currency mismatch.