关中地区公众气候变化感知的时空变异

Spatio-temporal variation of public perception on climate change in the Guanzhong area

公众对气候变化的感知是制定有效适应策略的基础。通过问卷调查和实测数据对比的方式,揭示了关中地区居民对当地气温和降水变化的感知差异。结果表明:(1)从总体趋势上,居民对温度、降水的感知与实测数据相对一致。在温度、降水变率较大的时段,居民的感知差异也较大;(2)关中东、西部地区居民对当地温度的感知强度均随年龄变小而在波动中呈上升趋势,中部地区则相反;对当地降水的感知强度,中、西部在波动中呈下降趋势,东部地区则相反;(3)居民的感知变化与实测数据的变化具有偏差。与实测的数据对比,居民的温度变化感知一致率东、中、西部分别为37.5%、75%、37.5%,而对降水变化的感知的一致率均为50%。

Public perception of climate change can support the development of adaptation strategy.By comparing the questionnaire survey results with climate data,this paper revealed the perception difference to the local air temperature and precipitation in the Guanzhong area.The results show that：（1） the local residents＇ perceptions of temperature and precipitation changes are in accord with,and proportionate to the real data;（2） the residents＇ perception intensities to the local temperature in the eastern and western Guanzhong area show an increasing trend with the aged becoming small,while the central part is opposite;the perception intensities to the precipitation,the central and western areas are a decreasing trend,while the eastern is opposite;（3） The deviations exist between the resident＇s perception and the real data changes.In contrast to the real data,the consistent ratings of the residents＇ perception to temperature changes in the eastern,central and western Guanzhong area are 37.5%,75%,37.5%,respectively;to the precipitation changes＇ consistent ratings is 50% each.