国际金融危机与世界经济前景

Prospect of the International Financial Crisis and World Economy

国际金融危机目前已经发展到第二阶段,其影响从发达国家扩展到发展中国家,从金融领域蔓延到实体经济。2008年发达国家经济已经陷入衰退,全球经济增长率大幅放慢。鉴于国际金融危机还在继续恶化,2009年全球经济增长率会进一步降低。但我们认为,房地产市场2009年下半年可能会趋于走稳,油价下跌,通货膨胀压力减轻,由于主要大国采取政府干预措施以及经济政策的国际协调,全球经济发生20世纪30年代那样大萧条的可能性不大。除了短期内经济衰退之外,这场国际金融危机的中长期影响将是深远的。

The international financial crisis has stepped into its second phase,begin to broaden from devel- oped countries to developing countries,spread from financial markets to real economy,advanced economies have entered a major downturn,global economy is projected to slow substantially in 2008.Because the financial crisis continues to broaden and intensify,global economy growth is expected to deteriorate and fall into a recession in 2009.However,as housing prices tend to sta- bilize,oil prices decline,inflation pressure seems contained,the world's central banks have been administering emergency measures and co-ordination in their economic policies,world economy is unlikely to fall into the great depression as it in 1930s.In addition to the economic recession in the short-term,its long-term effects will be far-reaching.