改革开放以来产业结构演进与生产率增长研究——对中国1978～2007年“结构红利假说”的检验

An Empirical Study on Change of Industrial Structure and Productivity Growth since the Reform and Opening-up——A Test for the Structure-bonus Hypotheses from 1978 to 2007 in China

要素转移推动着产业结构演进,进而影响生产率的增长。本文在估计三次产业资本存量的基础上,分析了我国1978—1992年、1992—2001年及2001—2007年三个阶段生产要素构成的变化和产业结构演进以及要素生产率水平和增长率的差异,并利用偏离一份额法分析了产业结构的生产率增长效应。本文发现劳动力和资本的结构变动度在加快,而产业结构的变化则较为平滑;生产率的增长主要来自于产业内部,尤其是第二产业内部;劳动力要素的产业间流动具有"结构红利"现象,资本的产业间转移却并不满足结构红利假说。反而存在"结构负利"。劳动力和资本两种要素的所有这些特点都呈现出阶段性特征。

The transfer of factors promotes the change of industrial structure, and further affects the productivity growth. Based on the estimation of stock capital of three industries, this paper analyses the change of industrial structure, the movement of production factors, and the differences of the productivity level and growth rate, which happened during the years of 1978--1992, 1992--2001, and 2001--2007. Moreover, adopting the shift-share method, this paper examines the effects of productivity growth on industrial structure. Also, this essay turns out that the change of labor and capital structure is speeding up, but the change of industrial structure is gently. The productivity growth mainly comes from the internal industry, particularly in the secondary industry. The results show that the structural-bonus phenomenon is notable in labor, but not in capital. All these characteristics of labor and capital represent the significance of the respective stages.