河北省煤炭资源系统动力学仿真研究

Research on system dynamics simulation of coal resources in Hebei Province

河北省能源消费结构中,煤炭占一次能源消费比例约为90%,远高于全国约67%的平均水平,煤炭资源的开发与利用对于河北省的社会经济发展具有十分重要的作用。根据煤炭资源、社会经济、环境之间的关系,建立河北省煤炭资源—经济—环境系统动力学模型,研究煤炭资源对河北省国民经济的保障程度。通过系统动力学仿真,预测了在不同的经济发展速度和产业结构、勘探投资、生产建设投资等条件下河北省煤炭资源储量、煤炭需求、供应、污染等方面的发展趋势及煤炭资源对国民经济发展的保障程度,为该省煤炭资源勘探开发的规划决策提供参考依据。

In the energy consumption structure of Hebei Province, coal consumption is taking about 90% of the primary energy consumption, which was higher than the 67% of national average level. The development and utilization of the coal resources will have a very important role to the Hebei Provincial social and economic development. According to the relationship between the coal resources, social economy and environment, a system dynamics model of the Hebei Provincial coal resources, economy and environment was established to study the coal resources for the guarantee of the Hebei Provincial national economy. With the system dynamics simulation, the paper predicted the development tendency of Hebei Province coal reserves, coal demands, coal supply, pollutions and others under the different economic development speed and industrial structures, exploration investment, production and construction investment conditions and the coal resources to the guarantee of the national economic development, which had provided the references basics to the planning decision of the provincial coal resource exploration and development.