可靠性贝叶斯鉴定试验方案中风险确定原则

The Principle of Ascertaining Risk in Making Qualification Test Project of Reliability Based on Bayes

在利用贝叶斯方法制定可靠性试验方案过程中,通常会用到经典风险、相对风险和验后风险来权衡试验方案.由于该方案在工程应用中还处于一种摸索阶段,因而三种风险权衡方法的使用还较为混乱.通过验前概率对三种风险权衡法制定出的可靠性试验方案影响的比较,分析了相对风险法在工程应用中的优势.

Classical risk, relative risk and after-test risk are usually used to measure test project in the course of making test project of reliability based on Bayes. Because this mehtod is in the course of being discussed in engineering, the application of these three methods to measure test project is not ensured. The effect of before-test probability on making test project of reliability using these three risks is compared. The superiority of relative risk in engineering is analyzed.