农业现代化因素与江西水稻单产的关系

Relationship between Agricultural Modernization Factors and Rice Yield per Hectare in Jiangxi Province

在多变量VAR模型的基础上,采用江西省1980-2006年的数据,运用协整分析和VECM等方法对江西稻谷单产和农业现代化指标之间的长短期关系进行了分析。结果表明,化肥、机械、用电量和旱涝保收比率均对稻谷产量增产具有正向促进作用;而农业科技“三项”费用对稻谷生产增产作用不明显;每公顷耕地农业机械动力和旱涝保收面积比率对于稻谷单位产量增长的短期效应小于长期效应,而在短期内每公顷耕地化肥施用量大于长期效应。

Using cointegration theory and vector error correction model and the data ranged from 1980- 2006,the long and short nm relationship between agricultural modernization factors and the rice yield per hectare in Jiangxi Province was investigated. The empirical result showed that except from the expenditure on agricultural technology, all the other variables such as nitrogenous fertilizer, power of agricultural machinery, electricity consumed in agriculture for every hectare of cultivated land and the ratio of the cultivated land prevented from flood and drought to the total cultivated land,had positive effect on the rice product. The effect of power of agricultural machinery per hectare of cultivated land and the ratio of the cultivated land prevented from flood and drought on the rice production was smaller in the short ran than that in the long run, conversely the effect of nitrogenous fertilizer in the short ran was greater than that in the long run.