灰色系统理论在地下水动态预报中的应用

THE APPLICATION OF THE GREY SYSTEMATIC THEORY IN THE PREDICTION OF FLUCTUATION OF GROUND WATER LEVEL

本文扼要介绍了灰色系统的基本理论、建模方法和检验精度的分析方法。并以四平市地下水动态特征为例,建立GM(1,1)包络模型,进行了地下水位拟合和外推预报。结果表明,GM(1,1)模型计算简单,是一种实用的预报方法,预报结果比较可靠。

The basic theory of the grey system and the method of establishing model as well as the analytical method of test precision are briefly described in this paper, aking the fluctuation characteristics of ground wa er in Siping city as an example, the envelope model GM (1, 1) is established, and he simulation and extrapolting prediction of ground water level is conducted. The results show that the model GM (1, 1) is a practical method of prediction with simple calculation and reliable results.