摘要
本文用统计降尺度方法(SDSM)对江苏地区最高、最低气温进行了模拟,结果表明:SDSM统计降尺度技术对江苏地区夏季最高气温和冬季最低气温平均值的模拟效果相当好;对年最低气温极大值和年最高气温极大极小值以及夏季最高气温极大值的模拟效果还不错;而其他极值的模拟效果不是很理想。由于对极值的平均值模拟较好,对未来气候的趋势模拟会比较有实际意义。
In this paper we Simulated the extreme temperature in Jiangsu province using statistical downscaling model （SDSM）. The results show that the technique of SDSM can simulate the summer average maximum temperature and the winter average minimum temperature quite well.In the same time, the simulation has also shown that the extreme high value in summer and annual can be reflected besides the maximum value in annual minimum temperature, but other extreme temperature can＇t be simulated well.It will be significative to simulated the trend of the climate using SDSM in the future because of the well simulation of the extreme average temperature.
出处
《科技信息》
2008年第30期9-11,共3页
Science & Technology Information
基金
国家自然科学基金40075023
国家重点基础研究项目(973项目)2004CB418301
关键词
统计降尺度法
SDSM
最低温度
最高温度
statistical downscaling model
SDSM
minimum temperature
maximum temperature
