摘要
通过分析冀北五市1990—2007年这一长时期的全社会用电量增长率发现,它与中国经济周期的波动存在着一定相关关系,结合中国较长时期的经济周期变化特征的分析以及国内权威经济周期研究专家对2008年及未来几年经济形势的认识,并考虑对冀北五市开展的电力市场调研结论和该地区电力需求与经济周期之间的关系,对"十一五"后期以及"十二五"的电力需求进行了中长期预测,并进行了情景分析。
Based on analysis of growth rate of electricity consumption referred to five cities in the north of Hehei province from the year 1990 to 2007, we find that it has some relation with economy cycle fluctuation. Then we attempted to know more about the characteristics of economy cycle variation of China. Viewpoint on 2008 economic tendency from experts in this field as well as the quantitative relation between electricity and economy, combined the information from market investigation, we have done forecast of long-term electric power demand in future to our concerned region and the corresponding scenario analysis is also offered.
出处
《电力需求侧管理》
2009年第1期8-12,共5页
Power Demand Side Management
基金
华北电网有限公司的科研课题<冀北五市"十二五"电力需求分析预测与远景展望>的部分研究成果
关键词
经济周期
市场调查
电力需求
中长期预测
情景分析
economy cycle
market investigation
electricpower demand
mid-term and long-term forecast
scenario analysis
