综合运输系统运输量分配模型研究

A Study of Traffic Distribution Model for Synthetical Transportation System

本文在分析运输结构优化依据的基础上,根据多产品替代方法原理,结合各种运输方式的特点,建立了综合运输系统运输量分配模型。通过对吉林省1971～1987年数据进行试算,证明该模型具有较高的精度和预测能力。用它预测吉林省未来年份各种运输方式运输量得到满意的结果。

This paper based on the analysis of tansport structure optimizing basis, according to the principle of multiple products substitution method, combining with the characteristic of every transsport mode, established the traffic distribution model for synthetical transportation system. By means of trial calculation for the data of Jilin prov. in 1971-1987, the results has proved that the model provided with a higher precision and forecasting ability. The forecasting of traffic distribution for every transport mode of Jilin province in future years by this model arrived at a satisfactory result.