摘要
为了在原油年度规划编制中更加准确地预测钻关对产量的影响,采用多元线性回归理论,对钻关影响产量的因素,如钻关前井网密度、含水、流动系数、采油强度、油水井数比、注水强度以及地层压力等进行了回归分析,采取后退法进行了变量筛选,建立了相对最优的预测方程。通过多元线性回归显著性分析,钻关影响产量的主要因素是钻关前的井网密度,其次为含水和流动系数,影响最小的为采油强度和油水井数比。经验证,建立的回归方程预测精度高,可以满足实际要求,在今后的油田生产中,可以利用该回归方程预测钻关对产量的影响。
To accurately predict effect of shut-in well on production rate in compiling annual plan, by using multi-element linear regression theory, a regression analysis is performed for impacting factors of shut-in well on production rate including well pattern density before shut-in well, water cut, flow coefficient, production intensity, injector-producer ratio, injection intensity and formation pressure. A variable screening is proceeded with a receding method, and a relatively optimal prediction equation is established. Through significance analysis on multi-element linear regression, the main impacting factors of shut-in well on production rate are well pattern density before shut-in, secondly are water cut and flow coefficient, and the least influencing factors are production intensity and injector-producer ratio. Verification shows high predictive accuracy of the regression equation, which can satisfy the actual requirement. The regression equation can be used to predict effect of shut-in well on production rate in future oilfield production.
出处
《大庆石油地质与开发》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第1期55-60,共6页
Petroleum Geology & Oilfield Development in Daqing
关键词
钻关
影响产量
因素
多元回归分析
预测
shut-in well
influence production
factor
multi-element regression analysis
prediction