贸易与中国收入不平等的计量检验

Econometric Test on Income Inequality and International Trade

改革开放以来,基尼系数基本上升的变动趋势表明中国收入差距日益扩大。检验贸易与中国收入不平等的关系,得出如下结论:贸易扩大总体上对中国收入不平等起到了改善效果;出口改善收入分配的效果比进口更加显著;制成品出口比重增加对收入分配产生显著的改善效应;制成品进口比重下降可能恶化收入分配。可见,贸易对中国收入分配的影响比较复杂,不能简单地用包括H—O理论在内的某个贸易理论来解释。有利于缩小收入差距的贸易政策,必须结合中国对外贸易的发展过程和特色。

Since China adopted the reform and opening-up to the outside world policy, the escalating trend of Gini indexes indicates that the income gap in China has been widening. Econometric analysis on trade and income inequality in China gives the following conclusions： trade as a whole has amended income inequality; the improving effect of export is more significant than import; income inequality has been mended with the rise of the proportion of manufacturing industry export and might worsen with the drop of manufacturing industry import. These results reveal that effects of foreign trade on income distribution in China are rather complicated, and single theory including H - O can not explain the phenomenon. Some trade policy recommendations have been put forward in the end.