基于投入产出模型的我国产业结构实证分析被引量：11

Empirical analysis on Chinese industrial structure change:based on input-output model

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摘要运用1997至2006年我国投入产出数据进行分析,藉由天际图分析法及产业关联分析中之向前、向后关联效果及乘数积矩阵分析法,对我国产业结构的跨期变化及变迁趋势进行实证分析。研究表明,我国服务业对国内经济的影响力呈扩张趋势,而制造业的影响力则下降;初级加工业的生产资源正逐渐向高新技术产业或高附加值产业及高级化服务业部门转移;各产业关联程度差异有明显上升趋势,产业总需求矩阵依然存在不对称的产业关联程度关系;产业间相互影响效果差异增大,且相互影响程度呈上升趋势,尤其表现在非制造业中。 Applying skyline chart analysis, forward and backward linkages of industrial correlation analysis, and the Multiplier Product Matrix, based on China＇s input-output data from 1997 to 2006, this study explored China＇ s inter-period changes in the industrial structure and changing trends. The results indicate that the relative impact of service industries on national economy has expanded while the manufacturing industries had declined; resources in primary processing industries are gradually transferring to high-tech industries or high value-added industries and advanced services; the discrepancy between each sector＇ s industrial linkage shows upward trend, industrial total demand matrix still exists asymmetrical industrial linkages; the industrial mutual effect difference increases and assumes a rising trend, especially in non-manufacturing industries.

作者李丽陈迅

机构地区重庆大学经济与工商管理学院

出处《科学学研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第2期202-208,共7页 Studies in Science of Science

关键词产业结构投入产出模型天际图产业关联乘数积矩阵 industrial structure input-output model skyline chart industrial iinkage multiplier product matrix

分类号 F121.3 [经济管理—世界经济]

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