模糊评价模型在舰炮制导炮弹风险评估中的应用

Application of Fuzzy Evaluation Model in Risk Assessment of Naval Gun Guided Bomb

介绍基于风险因子的风险模糊综合评价方法,并运用该方法对舰炮制导炮弹总体方案进行风险评估,取得较好效果。其步骤包括建立因素集和备择集、确定权重集、进行模糊综合评价,以及计算总评分。该方法综合考虑风险事件发生概率和风险后果对舰炮制导炮弹总体方案研制风险的影响,具有一定的应用价值。

The thesis gives fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of risk based on risk gene, and uses the method to evaluate the risk of general scheme of naval gun guided bomb; the simulated result shows good results. The steps of the method include establishing factor set, confirming the weighting set, evaluating comprehensively and calculating the total score. The method synthetically considers the influence of the occurrence probability of risk and risk consequence on development risk of naval gun guided bomb＇s general scheme, and has certain application value.