基于任务的复杂武器系统可用性仿真研究

Availability Simulation on Complex Weapon Systems Based on Mission

在复杂武器系统分不同的任务阶段、不同的工作方式且故障分布为非单一指数分布的情况下,运用蒙特卡洛法对其可用性进行动态仿真评估。将系统状态间各状态的转移时间均视为服从某一分布的概率值,运用蒙特卡洛法产生服从相应分布的随机数,最终通过分析随机数据得到系统可用性的近似解。实例分析中,通过对某武器系统在执行某任务时的可用性评估,并进行仿真结果的精度估计,结果证明该方法可行。

The paper proposes a method using Monte Carlo method to evaluate the availability of complex weapon system by computer dynamic simulation, in the case of different working modes, task stages and non-single exponential distribution of failure distribution. The method takes transfer time of each state as probability value following some statistical distribution, then use Monte Carlo method to product random number following corresponding distribution; finally approximate solution of system availability is obtained though analyzing random data. In practical examples, the simulation and test results demonstrate the method is efficient and feasible.