我国国内旅游需求及影响因素研究

THE STUDY ON CHINA'S DOMESTIC TOURIST DEMAND AND ITS INFLUENTIAL FACTORS

旅游需求影响因素的研究是旅游产业边界界定的基础。基于旅游需求不仅受国民经济发展水平影响,也与"食、住、行、游、购、娱"等产业要素发展水平相关的产业特征,本文对我国国内旅游需求的影响因素及其影响方向与程度进行了研究。利用多变量序列分量方差分析模型,通过对1984年至2005年相关变量时间序列数据的计量分析,本文发现当前我国国内旅游需求变化主要受经济增长速度影响;餐饮、零售产业对国内旅游推动较大;交通运输业的发展对国内旅游几乎没有影响;当前城乡居民生活水平的提高对国内旅游需求增长贡献有限。并以此为依据提出与国外发达国家相比,居民消费结构中旅游消费需求增长速度还低于生活水平改善速度,我国还没有真正进入国内旅游高速增长阶段。

The Study on influential factors of tourism is the fundamental work of defining the tourism industry. The complexity of the factors and the blur of the definition find it hard to set foot of the researches in the academic field. Therefore, studies on the domino effect phenomena in tourism and explorations of the influential factors of tourists＇ demands are becoming the focus of the relative researches. Adopting the Multivariate Time Series Variance Component Model （MTV） which is effective in such research due to the diversity and complexity of the influential factors in tourism demand, this paper concentrates on the influential factors of China＇s domestic tourism demand, and analyzes the correlative data from 1984 to 2005. the paper holds that the fluctuation of the domestic tourism demand is mainly affected by the increasing speed of economy; the further studies on the development of hospitality and retailing also reflect that the secondary industry pull the domestic tourism demand more effectively than the tertiary industry, while the transport industry doesn＇t impact too much. The prosperous future of the secondary and tertiary industry in China will surely offer a long-term dynamics for the increase of the tourism demand. Also, the paper points out the roles of investments and the imports and exports, which are the impetus of the economy increase. Then, the paper argues that the higher the living standard is, the more tourists demand, and these demands actually increase with the different degrees and speeds. Finally, this paper puts forward that the increasing speed of the domestic tourism demand is stiU below the speed of living standard improvement. Thus, the rapid tourism consumption increasing period has not come yet.