广州市城市电力消费对气候变化的响应

Responses of the Electric Power Consumption to Climate Change in Guangzhou City

低纬度地区的城市电力消费对气候变化有较为敏感的响应。该文引入了气候变化对农业产量和能源影响的研究方法,分别建立了气候变化对电力消费影响强度的动态评估模型和降温度日模型,对广州市城市电力消费对气候变化的响应作了深入分析。结果表明:广州市城市电力消费量主要受到气温、湿度、风速等气象因子的影响,其中气温为关键性因子;综合考虑各气候因子和气候变化的稳定性,1956—2005年的近50年,广州市气候变化对城市电力消费影响强度是持续稳定增加的,正强度出现的概率呈现出增大趋势,以10%/10 a的速度增长;通过对广州市降温度日的分析可知,5—10月为主要的降温时期,其气温的升高对降温度日强度变化影响很大,达到46.6%/℃,同时,广州市的降温期长度变率也呈递增趋势,因此,气温的升高引发的降温度日的增加对广州市城市电力消费有深刻影响;在未来气候变暖情景下,夏季平均最高气温每升高1℃,广州市全年单位工业产值耗电将增加2.02%,5—10月的平均气温每升高1℃,居民生活用电量的百分比将增加1.25%。在未来,气候变暖将使城市用电压力有继续增大的趋势。

The earth＇s climate is now experiencing significant change characterized by global warming. Profound influence has been or will be brought by the global warming to the world. Exploring and assessing climate change and its impacts are one of the hot issues in the fields of climate change. The electric power consumption of Guangzhou City which lies in the low latitude belt is sensitive to climate change. The trend of the electric power consumption changes with different paces and in different forms in Guangzhou City because of the global climate warming. In order to rationalize the allocation of the electric power resource and save the electric power, it is necessary to study the responses of the electric power consumption to the climate warming. A research method is introduced which is used to study climate change impact on agricul ture yield and energy sources, the dynamic assessment model for the influence intensity of the climatic change in the electric power consumption and the model of cooling degree-day are established respectively. The responses of the electric power consumption to climate change in Guangzhou City are analyzed, and the trend of the electric power consumption in Guangzhou City is forecasted. Firstly, the correlation between the electric power consumption of Guangzhou City and weather factors is studied, it is found that the main weather factors which affect the electric power consumption of Guangzhou City are the temperature, humidity and wind speed, but the temperature is the key factor. Secondly, the stability of climate change is a very important factor for the electric power consumption besides weather factors. A dynamic assessment model including mean influence intensity and deviation are established. Considering all the climate factors and the stability of climate change, in the late fifty years, influence intensity of the climatic change to electric power consumption has been increasing steadily, the probability of positive influence in- tensity has an ascending trend, rising at the speed of 10% every ten years, especially significant in recent twenty years. Thirdly, through the analysis of cooling degree-day of Guangzhou City, it is found that the main cooling time is from May to October. The intensity of cooling degree-day is influenced by the increase of the temperature greatly, reaching up to 46.6 %/℃. At the same time, by analyzing the variability of the length of cooling period, it shows that the length of cooling period has a gradual increasing trend in Guang zhou City. Therefore, the increase of cooling degree-day caused by temperature increasing has great effects on the electric power consumption. Finally, in the future scenery of climate warming, when the average maximum temperature increases 1℃ in summer, the unit industrial production value electric power consumption of the whole year will increase 2.02%. When the average temperature from May to October increases 1 ℃, the percentage of electric power consumed by residents will increase 1.25%. So in Guangzhou City, the pressure of the electric power consumption will be continuously increasing in the future because of the climate warming.