流动性过剩、通货膨胀与货币政策

Surplus of Liquidity,Inflation and Monetary Policy

当前经济下滑的基本原因是人民币升值,而人民币升值的主要原因是对通货膨胀的预期和对流动性过剩的估计有偏差。当前宏观调控的主要任务是保持经济稳定增长。宏观调控政策应定位于平衡的财政政策和稳健的货币政策组合。财政应当量入为出,收支平衡,努力压减行政支出;货币应当稳定汇率,调整利息,以便引导和控制信贷规模,调整贷款结构。

A key factor of the current decline of Chinese economy is the appreciation of RMB, which derives from the error related to inflation expectation and liquidity estimation. The main purpose of macro regulation and control is to maintain the stable growth of the economy. Macro policies should aim at keeping the financial balance and the stability of monetary policy group. That means to channel off and control loan scale and improve loan structure through balancing the financial income and payment, reducing administration expenditure, stabilizing foreign exchange rate, and adjusting interest.