专利地图、技术路线图和技术预见融合集成研究

Research for amalgamation-integration based on patentmapping, roadmapping and technology foresight

当今世界科技发展迅速，科技发展的外部环境瞬息万变，决策体系复杂庞大，涉及到宏观、中观、微观、现在与将来等方方面面的因素。科技决策与管理的难度日益加大，需要建立科学的、反应迅速的辅助科技决策方法与系统，搜集并处理相关有效信息，汇集智力资源，增强决策者对科技经济社会发展的判断与决策能力。专利地图、技术路线图和技术预见在国外的实践中证明是科技管理的有效工具，但单独运用还存在不足之处。本文在研究专利地图、技术路线图预见融合的背景、差异以及关联的基础上，构建综合预见方法，并提出若干建议，服务于科技管理科学化民主化。

Today science and technology is developed very fast in world, the surroundings of science and technology change also rapidly, the system of decision-making for science and technology is very large and complex, and which is correlated macro-factors, micro-factors, today and tomorrow factors. So decision-making and management of science and technology are more difficult ,and the government is need to construct scientific and reaction sensitive method and system of decision-making, which can collect and dispose effective information in order to increase the ability of decision-making and estimation for economy society development. Patentmapping, technology roadmapping and technology foresight are proved effectively decision-making tools in oversea,but applying one method has a lot of shortcomings. The backgrounds,difference and correlation among Patentmapping,technology roadmapping and technology are discussed detailed in this article, and synthetical foresight method is constructed. In the end, some advice is given, which is hoped to serve for science and technology management.