基于集对分析法的岩爆烈度分级预测研究

Study on Application of Set Pair Analysis Method to Prediction of Rockburst

集对分析方法是一种处理不确定性问题的系统分析方法,该方法数学表达简单,物理意义明确,所含意义深远.基于集对分析理论,选取影响岩爆的主要因素如最大切向应力σθ、单轴抗压强度σc、单轴抗拉强度σt、弹性能量指数Wet和岩石的脆性指数Is,并把σθ/σc,σc/σt,Wet和Is作为岩爆预测的主控因子,建立了岩爆预测的集对分析模型,对各个工程岩爆烈度级别进行预测.结合国内外一些典型深埋长大隧道工程实例进行分析计算,通过实际预测分析对比表明,集对分析法简便易行,评价结果准确,在隧道岩爆烈度级别的评判中具有广泛的实用价值.

Set pair analysis is the system analysis method to deal with uncertain problems, and it has been applied in engineering field widely. Based on the principle of set pair analysis,a model to predict the classification of rockburst is established. The main control factors of roekburst, such as values of in - situ stresses σ θ, uniaxial compressive strength σc and uniaxial tensile strength σt, of rock, elastic energy index of rock Wet, brittleness index of rock l are chosen in the analysis. Four factors including σθ/σc, σc/σt, Wet and It, are regarded as the control factors. A series of underground rock projects in domestic and abroad arc evaluated with the proposed model,and the results conform to reality very well, which show that the set pair analysis method is easy to operate and its assessing results are accurate and the practical value is extensive.