黄淮海平原浅层地下水埋深对气候变化响应

The Response of Shallow Water Table Depths to Climate Change in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

地下水是陆地水循环的重要组成部分,它受气候条件和植被地形及人类活动的影响。地下水埋深对气候变化的响应研究是气候变化影响研究的前沿和热点之一,对于水资源管理及其相关研究与应用具有重要意义。本文利用陆面水文模型VIC驱动统计模型RTFN开展气候变化的敏感性试验,探讨黄淮海平原地区浅层地下水埋深对气候变化的响应。研究表明,地下水埋深对降水变化的敏感程度远大于温度变化,埋深较浅区比埋深较深区敏感。在温度变化2～5°C,降水变化±15%的情景下,黄淮海平原区平均地下水埋深变化范围大致为-81～96 mm。由于地下水具有自记忆性,导致埋深对降水盈余响应滞后,该地区最大的埋深变化出现在8月。

Groundwater is an important component of terrestrial water cycle, and is affected by climate condition, vegetation, topography and anthropogenic activities. The study on the response of water table depths to climate change is one of the new and hot fields involved in the climate change impact research, and is essential to the water resources management and its related research and application. In this paper, the sensitivity experiment was carried out to investigate the impact of climate change on shallow water table depths in Huang-Huai-Hai （3H） Plain, which was accomplished by the variable infiltration capacity （VIC） model and regionalized transfer function-noise （RTFN） model. The results indicate that the variations of water table depths are more sensitive to precipitation variations than temperature variations, and the shallow water table is more sensitive to climate change than deep water table. As the temperature increase by 2 degree to 5 degree, and the precipitation increase or decrease by 15 %, the fluctuation of areal mean water table depth varies from -81 mm to 96 mm in 3H plain. Due to the memory of groundwater, the variation of water table lags behind the variation of precipitation surplus, and the most significant variation for water table depths occurs in 3H plain in August.