我国石油进口成本与策略的情景分析

随着经济的持续高速发展,我国对石油的需求急剧上升。由于国内石油产量不足,未来我国石油需求的对外依存度将越来越高,石油进口成本飞速增长,石油安全问题日益凸显。本文运用情景分析法,对我国未来各种情形下的石油进口量及进口成本进行了定量分析,讨论了需求、价格、汇率因素对进口成本的影响。文章最后还探讨了高油价情况下,石油战略储备对石油进口成本的影响。

With economy developed at a high-speed and sustainable, demand for oil increases sharply in China. Due to the insufficiency of oil output, the cost of oil import in China is soaring, with heavy dependence on oversea oil increasingly. Thus the oil security becomes a critical issue. In the paper, it mainly investigates the quantity and cost of oil import under some scenarios, and analyzes the impacts of demands, prices and exchange rate on the cost of oil import. Finally, it discusses the impacts of strategic petroleum reserve on the cost of oil import under the scenario of high oil price.