徐州市水资源承载能力多情景综合评价

Multiple Scenarios Comprehensive Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xuzhou City

在分析徐州市水资源特征及开发利用等对承载能力影响的主要因素的基础上,采用灰色关联模型确定人均水资源量、人均供水量、水资源利用率、耕地灌溉率、供水模数、需水模数、生活用水定额、生态环境用水率8个因素作为徐州市水资源承载能力综合评价指标,采用改进模糊综合评价方法对四种方案下不同水平年的水资源承载能力进行评价,分析了发展趋势,为徐州市水资源合理开发利用提供了决策依据。

Based on discussing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of water resources carrying capacity, analyzing the main factors of carrying capacity ,such as characteristics and development and utilization of water resources, the gray related model is adopted to confirm eight major factors：per capita of water resource, per capita of water supply, utilization rate of water resource, land irrigation water, water supply module, water requirement module, water ration and utilization rate of water resources for ecological environment. They are brought forward to be the appraisal indexes for the comprehensive evaluation on water resources carrying capacity in Xuzhou. A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is utilized to study the carrying capacity of different level years for four projects, and analysis of water resources carrying capacity development trend of water resource is made. It provides a decision-making basis for water resources development in the basin.