基于粮食安全策略的区域耕地需求预测——以四川盆地中部丘陵区为例

An Analysis and Forecast of Cultivated Land Demand Based on Food-safety——A Case Study of Hilly Country in Sichuan Basin

由于我国幅员面积广阔,其自然条件、经济发展水平和饮食结构的差异性很大,这就给以省为单位的耕地资源需求预测带来了一定的困难。鉴于此,在综合考虑经济、社会、自然及地形地貌等因素的基础上,以区域单元为单位预测和模拟耕地资源的需求变化情况,并对四川盆地中部丘陵区进行了实证研究。以期得到更加贴近实际的预测结果,为区域土地利用总体规划中确定耕地保护目标和制定区域协调发展战略提供科学依据。

It is very difficult to predict the transformation of cultivated land with each province as a unit, because the natural conditions, economic development levels, and dietary structure vary fyom region to region. With the hilly country in the Sichuan Basin as an example, this paper predicts and analyzes the demand for cultivated land in the future. The research may provide a reference to the government in formulating policies for cultivated land protection and regional strategy.