中国城市化与建设用地增长动态关系的计量研究

Quantitative Study of Dynamic Relationship between Urbanization and Construction Land Expansion in China

研究目的:探讨城市化和建设用地不同阶段相互影响的动态机制。研究方法:经济计量分析方法。研究结果:(1)从长期来看,城市化水平的提高与建设用地面积的扩张处于均衡状态,建设用地面积的扩张是城市化步伐推进的必然结果,但在短期内城市化水平的提高并不是诱导建设用地面积扩张的直接因素;(2)建设用地的粗放利用不是城市化步伐推进过程中的必然产物,相反在短期内城市化水平的提高在一定程度上能促进建设用地的集约利用;(3)建设用地数量的增加对城市化水平提高的贡献有限;(4)城市化水平的变化在近期对建设用地数量增加的解释力偏低,而在远期基本能对建设用地数量的增加予以解释。研究结论:要合理利用土地资源就必须充分发挥城市化发展对建设用地集约利用的促进作用,在近期适当控制建设用地的扩张,远期则需选择用地节约型的城市化发展道路。

The purpose of the paper is to discuss the interactive influence of dynamic mechanism in different stages between urbanization and construction land. Method of econometrics analysis was employed. The results show that：（ 1 ） there was an equilibrium relationship between the development of urbanization and the construction land expansion in the long term, and the construction land expansion was the inevitable result of the development of urbanization, however, in a short time, the development of urbanization was not the direct factor that causes the construction land expansion; （2）extensive construction land use was not the necessary product of the rapid urbanization, on the contrary, the development of urbanization would promote the more intensive construction land use in a short period, but the effect was limited;（3）the contribution of construction land expansion to the development of urbanization was limited; （4） the change of urbanization could only explain small part of the construction land use change in a short time, while it could explain the construction land use change in a long time basically. It is concluded that, to achieve a more reasonable land use, the promotion of urbanization to construction land development should be fully realized. The construction land supply should be reasonably controlled in the short term and the proper urbanization way of economical land use needs to be carefully selected in the long term.