摘要
西藏自治区自十一届三中全会以来,在对外贸易方面已经取得了可喜成绩。本文将西藏自治区的对外贸易分为边境贸易和对外贸易剔除边境贸易的部分,即调整贸易,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法进行动态实证研究。结果表明,在短期内,边境贸易和调整贸易均对西藏自治区经济发展存在正向的促进作用,从长期来看,边境贸易对西藏自治区的正向促进作用逐渐减弱,而调整贸易的正向促进作用逐渐增强。
This article analyzes the effect of the growth of international trade on the economic development of Tibet in the 30 years. Because the border trade of the Tibet is special, this article divides the international trade into two parts： border trade and adjust-trade. Using impulse response function and variance decomposition method, the paper finds that border trade and adjust-trade can promote the economic development of Tibet in a long run, although adjust-trade can＇t promote the economic development of Tibet in a short time, and adjust-trade is making greater and greater contribution to the development of Tibet.
关键词
边境贸易
调整贸易
脉冲响应函数
方差分解
Border trade
Adjust-trade
Impulse response function
Variance decomposition
